Most people are happy to say goodbye to 2020, but what does 2021 have in store? The pandemic is a wake-up call, telling us that we’re not as in control as we thought. We don’t know what’s going to happen in January, much less in the rest of 2021, but we do see certain themes coming strongly to the fore.

Inequality and the Disappearing Middle Class

One of the themes that is going to be a focus in 2021 is inequality. In the past I have addressed inequality, but the pandemic has magnified every existing inequality in our society – racism, gender inequality, and poverty – making it more important than ever to continue to address this social affliction. The co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has written a stark report, which expresses the belief that the pandemic could result in a ‘lost decade’ for developing countries. Leaders are urged to move quickly to help them recover from the fallout of Covid-19.

Nardos Bekele-Thomas, the Resident Coordinator of the UN in South Africa, has said that the pandemic has shaken societies to their core. According to her, “The pandemic is more than a health crisis, It’s an economic, a humanitarian, a security, and a human rights crisis. Today more than ever, inequalities within and among nations are being exposed and exacerbated by COVID-19 as the poor and vulnerable are unable to protect themselves,” She added that “One of the key findings of the study is the awareness that individuals are susceptible to transition from one level of poverty to an even lower one, such as the vulnerable middle class to …  slipping into poverty.”

Furthermore, the UNDP said that it could take at least five years for the country’s economy to return to pre-2019 levels unless innovative actions were implemented.

The veracity of this report is borne out by the fact that South Africa is suffering the effects of increased poverty and inequalities on a frightening scale. Economic advisor Fatou Leigh said that 34% of South Africa’s middle class was likely to fall below the poverty line.

Remote Working our New Reality

Another theme coming to the fore is the work-from-home trend, which has proven beneficial, both for companies and their employees. While some companies have realized they can save money as they scale back expensive office leases, employees have experienced many benefits from being at home.

In a LinkedIn survey, it was found that 82% of workers want to work from home at least once a week. Also, 57% want to work from home at least three days a week.

Further advantages of this new reality are that employees have benefited from being able to attend to their children, the climate has improved because there are fewer commuters, and we are reading countless stories of how people have found an enhanced quality of life, due to hours of stressful commutes being reduced. It could be difficult to convince many employees of the desirability of an imminent return to the office.

This model is strongly evident in tech and finance companies, but not all industries will allow it. Those working on the ground in supply chains and retail will probably not be offered this opportunity, while others believe that physical workplace connection is essential. Either way, it is a new phenomenon that will continue to evolve in 2021.

New Wave of Entrepreneurs

A further theme that has emerged strongly is that challenging times seem to give rise to new entrepreneurial endeavors. According to an article in “The Entrepreneur Magazine” the SARS pandemic of 2002-2004 catalyzed the meteoric growth of a then-small ecommerce company called Ali Baba and helped establish it at the forefront of retail in Asia. This growth was fueled by underlying anxiety around traveling and human contact, similar to what we see today with Covid-19. The financial crisis of 2008 also produced its own disruptive side effects. AirBnb and Uber shot up in popularity across the west as the subprime crisis meant lower savings and income for the masses. People were forced to share assets in the form of spare rooms and car rides in order to cover the deficit. Doubling down on this trend, videogame business models rapidly changed as well, with 2011 seeing the rise of the free-to-play business model, thanks to Nexon in Asia and King in the West.

We all know that the economy has receded because of Covid-19 and that small businesses have undoubtedly taken a huge hit. We see closed restaurants and “To Let” signs everywhere, but this doesn’t represent the entire picture. Forbes Magazine has said nearly all new business owners — a whopping 96% — said they had always wanted to start a business. For about 40% of them, Covid-19 was the push they needed to launch their small business.

“Downturns or challenging times are seen as good times to start a business for two reasons,” says Rashmi Menon, entrepreneur in residence at the University of Michigan’s Zell Lurie Institute for Entrepreneurial Studies. “One is, there is less competition for resources. The second reason is that whatever changes we face, positive or negative, bring up new customer needs. And customer needs are at the core of any business.”

Although SA has not yet produced these statistics, we have seen new innovations like Digemy, a startup that produces online education modules for businesses, taking a different approach to navigating the pandemic. However, Keet van Zyl, partner and co-founder of Knife Capital, a growth equity investment firm in Cape Town, said “immediate cash flow” was one of the primary challenges facing South African startups amid the pandemic. This truth is illustrated by the Mail and Guardian story of startup SmartSentials. SmartSentials is an online grocery store and delivery service that has not been able to raise the capital to pivot into business-to-consumer grocery deliveries, an industry that could thrive during the pandemic.

Renewed Focus on Climate Change

And last, but not least, climate change (a subject that is pertinent to all of us) is predicted to be a strong focus for 2021. This is especially important as warming temperatures and biodiversity loss contribute to the proliferation of viruses. Climate warming is demolishing natural defense systems, driving a catastrophic loss in biodiversity. Added to this is reckless deforestation and aggressive conversion of wildland for economic development, pushing farms and people closer to the edge and opening the gates for the spread of disease.

The coronavirus pandemic has magnified health and wealth inequality, raising important questions about ethics and the priorities of public policy interventions.

While it is true that we cannot predict the future, we can consciously help shape our society and raise important questions about ethics and priorities.

Here’s to a prosperous and progressive New Year.